2008-07-15 5-C Power Pointa'W. 1 - ,~
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City of Alameda Ballot
Measure Feasibility Survey
Survey Conductei
June 25-29, 2008
220-2582
raarbanK, ~Vlasl[n, 1Vlaullan & Associate!
Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis
Santa Monica, CA -Oakland, CA -Madison, WI -Mexico City
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Methodology
^ 400 telephone interviews with City of Alameda
voters likely to cast ballots in the November
2008 general election
^ Interviews conducted between June 25-29,
2008
^ Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.9%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Key Findings
^ Voters have a very positive feeling about overall community
conditions in the City of Alameda, perceive there to be
relatively few urgent problems facing the community, and
are resistant to cuts in the current level of City services.
^ Support for a public safety parcel tax falls far short of the
two-thirds threshold.
^ Property owners are strongly opposed to the formation of a
maintenance assessment district.
^ A slim majority support increasing the real estate transfer
tax, though that support is somewhat soft.
^ Voters place a high priority on funds generated from any
measure preserving public safety services.
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Perceptions of the
Community
Fnirbnnk,
Maslin,
Mnullin & Voters feel very positive about
Associntes
°,,°°,,,~~~°.,,~ conditions in the City
Mlxpc~
c
Wrong
track
22%
The City of Alameda
DK/NA
8%
Wrong
track
13%
Your neighborhood
DK/NA
Mixed 500
Fnirbnnk,
M~uin'~ Relatively few issues are rated as
A``°`'°'" "very serious" problems by most voters.
(Ranked by Total Extremely/Very Serious Problem)
^ Ext./Very Ser. ^ S.W. Ser. ^ Not Too Ser. ^ DK/NA
I State budget cuts that reduce the money
available for local city services
The cost of healthcare
The cost of housing
City budget deficits
The condition of the local economy
Waste and inefficiency in local
government
2~% 5%3,
24% 12% 7%
30% 13%
-----------------------
27% 7% 17%
33% 17% 6%
28% 18% 11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Continued
The amount people pay in city taxes
Crime
Traffic and congestion on local
streets and roads
A lack of parking in commercial districts
Growth and development
Gangs and youth violence
A lack of parks and open space
^ Ext./Very Ser. ^ S.W. Ser. ^ Not Too Ser. ^ DK/NA
24% 33% 11
.. 33% 38% ~~
' ' ~ 35% 37% ~~
29% 46%
28°/a 46% 3aa
34% 43%
21% 65%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Public Polrcy Analysis
While modestly concerned about the ~ =~"f
l~~~~ ~
local economy, voters are comfortable ~~~~x
with their personal economic situation.
Personal Economic Situation
Much better
Somewhat better
No difference
Somewhat worse
Much worse
DKINA
11% TO~I
Better
29% 40%
35%
14% TO~I
Worse
8% 22%
3%
City Economy
a% Total
~ 29% Better
33%
18%
S%
6%
i
35% ~O~
WO
~~o
i
e
0% 20% 40°/a 60% 0% 20°/a 40% 60°/a
Fnirbnnk,
Maslin,
M~ul~,n ~ Voters are resistant to make further
A``°`'°'" significant cuts in City services.
(Ranked by Large Cuts)
^ Large Cuts ^ Some Cuts ^ No Cuts ^ DK/NA
Chuck Corica Golf Course maintenance
Maintenance of public landscape areas, such
as median strips on local streets
Youth services and after-school programs
Traffic enforcement and safety
Recreation programs
Maintenance of public parks and athletic
fields
Police programs in local schools
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Continued
Senior services
Police and fire salaries and benefits
Paramedic services
Library hours
Street maintenance and pothole repair
Police patrols
Fire protection services
^ Large Cuts ^ Some Cuts ^ No Cuts ^ DK/NA
o
ova
o
o ' o
o ~ o
~~ i
o ~
o ~ ~~a
0
~~
o ~
~ 3%
0 ~
O ~
i
0 ~
u
~ o
3 /o
0 ~
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Evaluating Potential
Finance Measures
Fnirbnnk,
Maslin,
Mnul/in &
A.~.s~~~»r~s Parcel Tax Ballot Language Tested
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
THE CITY OF ALAMEDA PUBLIC SAFETY SERVICES
MEASURE. To prevent the spread of gang and drug-
related violent crimes, theft and burglary from
neighboring communities; keep existing fire stations
open; maintain neighborhood policing programs; and
improve traffic flow, and pedestrian and bicycle safety;
shall the City of Alameda levy a $120 per year
residential parcel tax, and comparable amounts for non-
residential and multi-unit residential properties, limited to
20 years, with low-income senior exemptions, and
subject to audits?
Fnirbnnk,
M~uin'~ Support for a public safety
Associntes
,~,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, parcel tax falls far short of the
two-thirds threshold.
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
19%
Total
16% ~@S
6% ~'~ °~o
5% . TO~aI
13% ~O
o ~ ~~°~o
25 /o
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
$100 per year
$80 per year
$60 per year
Support still falls well short of
two-thirds at lower cost levels.
^ Def. Yes ^ Prob./Lean Yes ^ Lean/Prob. No ^ Def. No ^ NMI/DK/NA
0 0
40% ~5%
~~Y~ 20% 19% •' • 15%
45° o ~ 41
'~:~'~~ 19% 16% ~~' 14%
o~io
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
F°;'b°"k, property owners are strongly
Maslin,
A, socint~ opposed to formation of an
°,"„°,,,'"°',,` assessment district.
1 would like to ask you about a measure that some property owners in the City of
Alameda may be asked to vote on by mail at a different time in the future. This
measure would create a maintenance assessment district to maintain and improve
City parks, streets, sidewalks, medians, and pedestrian and bike paths by assessing
$120 on an annual basis to property owners living within the district boundaries.
(Asked of 64% who own property only)
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
14% Total
11 °/a Yes
3% 28°~
5% Total
14% NO
40% 59°~
13%
o~ia
20%
40%
60%
Fnirbnnk,
Maslin,
Mnul/in &
A.~.s~~~»r~s Real Estate Transfer Tax Ballot
„°°°°°°'°°,~ Language Tested
THE CITY OF ALAMEDA VITAL CITY SERVICES
MEASURE. To maintain essential City services such as
keeping existing fire stations open; maintaining
neighborhood policing programs; improving traffic flow,
and pedestrian and bicycle safety; preventing recreation
program cutbacks; and restoring previous reduced
library hours; shall the City of Alameda increase the City
real estate transfer tax, charged when a property is sold,
from $5.40 to $15 per $100,000 of assessed value,
limited to 20 years and subject to audits?
Fnirbnnk,
M°``'", Among those who heard the measure
Mnullin &
Associntes
,~,;,,,,,,,,,,,~,,.,,, described first, it receives majority
support, though support is soft.
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
10%
3%
7%
17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
~ 22% Total
20% Yes
52°~
Total
No
I21o~ 31°~
Fnirbnnk,
Maslin,
M~u„gin & Support for a smaller real estate
A``°"n'" transfer tax increase - to $12 instead of
$15 - is slightly higher.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0°/a
Initial Support at $15
Support with Additional "yes" Voters at $12
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Spending Priorities for
Funds Generated by a
Transfer Tax Measure
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Public Polrcy Analysis
Keeping existing fire stations open
I Maintaining existing emergency medical and
ambulance transportation services
Avoiding rotating fire station closures
Funding programs that prevent the spread of
gang and drug-related violent crimes from
neighboring communities
•t 0
w ~
u ~
® ~r
to
0
Y Y
I
_t 0 i t o
~ , t 2/
t 0
~ ~
~ i
t
0 t
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Public Polrcy Analysis
Continued
Maintaining existing neighborhood
policing programs
Funding programs that prevent the spread
of theft and burglary from neighboring
communities
Maintaining City streets, sidewalks and
medians
Restoring previously reduced library hours
^ Ext./Very Impt. ^ S.W. Impt. ^ Not Impt. ^ DK/NA
4:Y~ 28% ~- sr
iiY~ 32% ' . si
Ly~l 42%
j
L'Yl~I 30% 4r
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
Continued
Upgrading city streets and intersections to
improve traffic flow
Expanding police traffic patrols to improve
pedestrian safety
Expanding police traffic patrols to improve
pedestrian and bicycle safety
Addressing more nuisance crimes,
including vandalism, neighborhood blight,
and noise complaints
^ Ext./Very Impt. ^ S.W. Impt. ^ Not Impt. ^ DK/NA
„1,
0 i
1
./ 1, 0 1
I I
,. 1 . 0 i
1~ G;
- s 1 0 , .,
~ ~
1 0
1 0 1
o~
~ 1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fairbc~nk,
Maslin,
Maullin &
Associates
Opinion Research &
Public Polrcy Analysis
Continued
Putting a portion of the real estate transfer
tax fees into a fund residents may access to
pay for seismic renovations to their homes
Expanding police traffic patrols to prevent
speeding and improve traffic flow
Improving maintenance of youth sports
fields, including baseball diamonds and
soccer fields
Replacing outdated park equipment
^ Ext./Very Impt. ^ S.W. Impt. ^ Not Impt. O DK/NA
0 ~I o
1 1 0
0
i. Q ~ ~ o
~ 4 /o
tl, 0 I
~ ~
r. 0 I a
1
0
I I
~1 Q ~, u
j 1 /o
1 Q
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
100%
Fnirbnnk,
Maslin,
Mnul/in &
A``°`'°'" Conclusions and Recommendations
Opinion Research &
Publ is Policy Analysis
^ Overall, voters are happy with their quality of life in
Alameda and see few pressing concerns.
^ Perhaps as a result, they are resistant to most
proposed tax increases.
^ However, they would also prefer not to make major cuts
in City services.
^ As a result, a real estate transfer tax increase -despite
having only a narrow majority of support - is probably
the most viable option. However, it will need a very
strong and active community-run campaign to succeed.
~'o~r ~o~r~ i~fo~r~~~io~~ ~o~t~~t:
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
dave@fmma.com
~URTIS BELOW
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
curbs@fmma,com
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin c~ Associates
Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis
Santa Monica -Oakland -Madison, WI -Mexico City